carlfinkle (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

Its not that September is good or bad its just that the market tends to move a lot around that time of year. If we are in a bull market it moves up more than average and vice versa in bear markets. Its just that people remember the down months more than the up months.The market has always tended to move more in the second half of the calendar year. None of this will help you make money.The only thing to do is panic now and avoid the rush!

chemtrailsRus (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

ha ha ha. well well well.

Gilgamesh73 (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

Great production values!

donharrold (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

HIGH5flyer - The last 5 years, the last 10 years, and, the last 20 years, it's been a coin flip. The last 40 years it's been 55% correct. That's not a way to plan any trading strategy. I don't care what happened in 1896. All I know is that this "September" thing has gotten less and less true over the last 40 years.

high5flyer (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

The worst month annually since 1896 for the DJIA has been September.

ckekinit (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

I would listen to Art..before I would listen to anyone. He has been around a long time. I understand your point. I believe we are going to see lot of downtrend (new lows) before the end of the year.

donharrold (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

RAITISFREIMANIS - No, he has not been "spot on". My argument has nothing to do with THIS September. My argument is that "September is always a bad month," is not correct. The statistics do not support - at least for the last 5, 10, 20, or, 40 years - a statistically significant chance of a losing September.

raitisfreimanis (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

So far that guy in your video has been spot on, September sure has been a lousy month for stocks.

donharrold (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

A55ORGY - I used 5 years. I used 10 years. I used 20 years. I went back 40 years. That's more than a generation. In that time, the Septembers have been getting less and less of an indicator.

A550RGY (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)

Don, you may be right that the bulk of the "good times" were deeper in the past -- I haven't checked -- but what time frame *is* acceptable to you for this sort of "backtesting"? 20 years? 10? If so, why? What changed X years ago to shift the market into this current model?